2023-2024 Season in Review: Player Grades

After ending the playoff drought last year, the Kings entered the season with real playoff aspirations and expectations. For a while, it looked like the Kings would find their way into another playoff series, but a Malik Monk injury, a losing record in March, and a crushing (and record breaking) sixth loss to the Pelicans was the kiss of death to a confusing season for Kings fans.

This was a season where the Kings banked on internal development, and while the resulting play-in loss may tempt you to consider this season an abject failure, that development did happen. In this piece, we're going to grade each player's 2024, and try and look forward to the future of this team.

Let’s begin. 

Keegan Murray: A-

While Keegan hit his three pointers at a lower clip than his rookie season while retaining the same volume, his shot diet was significantly more varied and difficult. His improvements on midranges, as well as at the rim and at the free throw line gives me hope that positive regression is inevitable with his three. When Keegan starts games hot, and he actively looks for his own shots beyond the DHO’s running threes, it can be lethal. 

The real excitement with Keegan is on the defensive end, where he quietly became one of the league’s best isolation defenders. The advanced stats display this massive jump, as he fell in the 33rd percentile in D-EPM (Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus) last year, and this year, he skyrocketed to the 90th percentile. His premier performance in the play-in victory over the Warriors was the crowning jewel of his season, holding the Splash Brothers to 8/26 from the field and 3/13 from three. If Keegan can maintain the strong showing from everywhere else on the floor, as well as return to close to his elite rookie shooting, Keegan will be competing for an all-star nod before you know it. The Kings offense feels like a volume scorer away from real greatness, and Keegan showed that he could be that guy next year. 

Chris Duarte: F

Man, Duarte was hard to watch this season. He had a few decent games, like his four three pointer performance against Denver, but for the most part, Duarte was largely unplayable. I understood the signing in theory, and in theory, Duarte would have been a fantastic spot starter for the Kings. His athleticism, familiarity with a DHO offense with Sabonis and his defensive chops seemed like a solid fit within Mike Brown’s system. Reality was significantly more disappointing, with his fouling issues and inconsistent shooting from Indiana carrying over in a massive way. Five fouls in nineteen minutes against the Pelicans. Four fouls in NINE minutes against the Cavs. The Kings should move on from Duarte this summer. 

Davion Mitchell: B+ 

Davion’s 2024 is truly a tale of two seasons. Prior to February, Davion had been having his worst offensive season to date, shooting only 26% from beyond the arc while only averaging 3.4 points per game. The Davion experiment truly felt over. Davion would follow that performance with... 43% from three for the rest of the season? What? Despite no visible change in his form or motion, Davion became a lethal shooter seemingly overnight. The repeatable and consistent shooting form (especially off the catch) that I loved out of Baylor was finally finding nylon. Davion’s defensive ability, which was never really in question, was finally justifiable to use in high leverage situations. If that second half was real, Davion becomes a part of the Kings future, something I’m not sure I would have said a year ago. 

Kevin Huerter: C-

Kevin’s season was a little better than the fan narrative will tell you, but it was still a major fall from his scorching 2023. While Kevin shot over 39% in November, January and February, he also shot 23% in October, 31% in December, and 25% in March. When it comes to Huerter, if his shots aren’t falling, his place in the offense becomes nearly useless. Despite making strides as an off-ball defender, and a significant improvement on his assist to turnover ratio, there isn’t much to justify his minutes, especially if Keon/Davion/Colby are viable options.  Kevin’s shooting numbers are better while he’s in rhythm, and the team couldn’t afford to let him shoot it out in games this season. Huerter is an established shooter, and while the drop in free throw percentage scares me, I’m reasonably confident he should be able to return to closer to his career average of 38/39%. However, with the emergence of cheaper, younger, and potentially better options at guard, and Keon’s clear possession of the starting two role, the Kings may be better suited finding a new home for Huerter. 

Malik Monk: A

After the end of last season, I had nothing but praise for Monk’s year, but I went into the offseason wondering what separated Monk from the classic “sixth man” archetype of a volume scorer who didn't do much of anything else. Malik’s response was to have one of the best playmaking seasons from a bench guard in recent memory. He channeled his inner Clippers Lou Williams, and eclipsed both 1,000 points and 350 assists off the bench, stepped up in the clutch when Fox struggled, and maintained his career efficiency while operating at a career high usage. Malik has positioned himself to get paid this off-season, maybe more than the Kings can offer, and he’ll be worth every dime. There are not many people who run the second unit quite like Monk, and he should be the Kings top priority to retain this summer.  

De’Aaron Fox: B+

The month of December was the full realization of the terrifying offensive force that De’Aaron Fox can be. While his three pointer cooled a bit to end the year, and the volume was sometimes a bit too rich for the blood, shooting about 37% at a seven threes-a-game rate is exactly the sort of leap that Kings fans had wished for. Beyond his offensive jump, Fox flashed some two-way ability not previously seen, using his speed to terrorize opponents and rack up deflections off-ball. He also grew significantly as an iso defender, leading the league in steals. Steals and blocks have become so secondary to advanced defensive metrics that I actually think they’ve gotten underrated as a defensive talent indicator. Fox held superstar guards like Irving, Brunson, and Trae Young to under 10 points in games, and performed well in Curry and Shai assignments, something most fans didn’t see coming. Fox's season wasn't perfect though, with the occasional horrid three-point shooting performance taking us out of games completely. 2/12 in a loss to the Pels, 3/11 in a loss to the Wolves and a particularly embarrassing 3/10 in a loss against Charlotte. While those games are hard to stomach, I think they come with the growth of De'Aaron as a volume scorer with a three in his arsenal. While he had his moments of three-point reliance, especially after his injury, his diet over the season looks more similar to Kyrie Irving than Stephen Curry. Overall, a big season of growth from Fox, as he enters next season as a more complete guard. 

Domantas Sabonis: A

Feels weird to give a “non-all-star” an A grade, but we all know that was a sham. Sabonis was an all-star two years in a row in Indiana, and it is no exaggeration to say that he improved massively in every single aspect of his game this season. Nearly twenty points per game at career high efficiency, including an unprecedented 37% from three. Sabonis posted career high assist numbers while limiting turnovers, he had career highs in offensive and defensive rebounding, and most underrated of all, played significantly better defense. With 4 defensive win shares and a career high in Defensive Box Plus/Minus, Sabonis took strides in removing the poor defensive label that haunts him. Domantas' detractors will point at his eye-popping stats and claim “empty calories” and that Sabonis might be holding this roster back. While Sabonis occasionally struggle as the second scoring option, his value to this roster cannot be understated. Sabonis generates points at a level really only matched by Nikola Jokic, and if he is given a second, consistent volume scorer next to Fox, his small offensive flaws would disappear. In my opinion, Sabonis is best used as an opportunity scorer, and if the Kings can allow him to do that next season, he won't miss out on the All-Star game again.

Trey Lyles: B- 

Trey Lyles has essentially been the same guy his entire eight-year career. He brought physicality and poise to the backup forward position (even though he really should have started) and served as a stretchy compliment to Sabonis and Len. Lyles also worked as a small five, and hits corner threes at a very respectable rate. Lyles isn't the sexiest role player (the TreyBae’s might disagree) but dependable veteran shooting will always be valuable to this team or any team for that matter. While the Kings may be better served in the long run with a four that can protect the rim at a high level, it’s hard to imagine Lyles losing a spot on this team. 

Alex Len: B

Ah yes, my low usage rate king. Alex Len is loved by basketball sickos like me, and vastly misunderstood by the majority of the NBA community. While a line average of 2.5/2.7 and a block may not jump off the page, his ratings do. Although an incredibly small sample size, Len carried a 100.8 defensive rating and a +15 net rating this season, and when he plays 12+ minutes, his blocking numbers jump significantly. This season, Alex showed just how impactful a player he can be on the floor. While he certainly isn’t the aforementioned blocking four to slot next to Sabonis, Len is a pretty useful backup center who doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be impactful. Len should be re-signed this off-season, even if competition is brought in at the center position.

Harrison Barnes: F

Before I begin, I’m sure that Harrison Barnes is a stand-up guy, and it’s clear he’s a leader in the locker room and out in the community. I appreciate his veteran status, and the fact that he’s been with Sacramento through our entire growth process, however his play on the court cannot go uncriticized. In 82 games this season, Harrison notched 0.1 VORP, a cumulative stat which measures value over replacement level across a full season. Theoretically, it should be difficult for a player who starts 82 games and plays 29 minutes a game to have such a low number, but Barnes was so unfathomably terrible that he only managed his paltry 0.1. How bad is that? His VORP places him as the 28th worst among players who played comparable minutes. Not 28th this season, though, 28th in MODERN NBA HISTORY. If you thought it couldn’t be any worse, the twenty-seven players ahead are largely defensive specialists whose value isn’t properly judged by VORP. There is a legitimate argument that Harrison Barnes is the WORST season starter since 1976. Chimezie Metu was on the couch for a significant portion of the NBA year, and he had more VORP than Barnes. Neemias Queta was barely an NBA player this season, and you guessed it, more VORP than Barnes. Jontay Porter had more. Javonte Green, in only nine total games, had more.

Harrison’s nightmare of a season was on full display in the final month of the season, a time when he needed to step up and provide a steady hand to a team rocked by injuries. He did not do that. Barnes shot career lows from everywhere on the floor, while playing nearly 27 minutes a night.  The Harrison Barnes extension, in a summer where Austin Reaves, Herb Jones, Max Strus and Naz Reid signed for less AAV, is a massive stain on Monte McNair’s resume. There is absolutely zero situation, barring a massive cut in role and minutes where Barnes should remain on this team. I know that’s harsh, but having the NBA equivalent of a black hole starting every game without fail is simply not a recipe to winning playoff basketball. It just isn’t. 

Keon Ellis: A+ 

If you doubt Monte McNair’s ability to draft and develop, look no further than the incredible emergence of Keon Ellis this season. Keon was a favorite among the nerds of Kings fandom, and in the closing months of the season, he finally got his chance. From his start in the thirty-five point win over the Bucks to the end of the year, Keon averaged eight points per game, a lights-out 47% from three, and played suffocating defense from 1-3. Keon was a big part of a mid-season culture shift for the Kings, and his injection into the starting lineup turned a porous defensive group who allowed 117.5 points per 100 possessions into the third ranked defense in the NBA (109.5pph) Keon is a great defender on the ball, but is even better off it, and roamed the floor like a free safety for the Kings at times. Among “combo guards” per Cleaning the Glass, Keon ranks third-best (!) in block percentage, a unique ability that complements Domantas Sabonis really well. Pair this emergence with an unbelievably team friendly deal (three years, five million), and it’d be hard to give Keon anything less than an A+. Shoutout to Monte. 

Colby Jones: B

While Colby may not have eclipsed two hundred minutes in Sacramento, he flashed serious promise in Stockton and has positioned himself to compete for rotational minutes next season, especially if Monk walks. He feels like another year away from being a really interesting compliment to Fox, Monk, and Keon, as more of a larger, switchable defensive guard in the mold of Josh Hart or Malcolm Brogdon. That’s high praise, but it’s warranted. He did struggle at times with ball handler decisions, and he felt maybe a bit timid in terms of outside shooting, but those are pretty common traits in younger guards. If Colby can develop his playmaking and improve his shooting numbers off the dribble, he could suddenly be one of the most complete young guards in the league.

Sasha Vezenkov: C

The Kings made signing Vezenkov a priority this summer after watching him for years in the Euroleague. I was equally bought into the 27-year-old MVP, and felt like his offensive game might translate more at the next level. Despite a clear buy-in from the organization, one that may end up jeopardizing the Monk signing down the road, Sasha struggled to find consistent minutes in the rotation, and once he sustained a calf strain that held him out for over two months, those minutes were even harder to find. In the minutes he played, Sasha was a positive presence, with his three-pointer landing at about 37% for the season and 40% after his return from injury. While he doesn’t look it, and it certainly wasn’t an expectation going into the year, Sasha’s defense was a positive. He’s not by any means an athletic guy who’s going to lock down the opposing star, but he plays high-IQ defense off-the-ball and runs into a few deflections when he’s on the floor. Sasha is an interesting asset moving forward, and should absolutely be retained. 

Javale McGee: C 

Javale didn’t play much this season but was given pretty high praise from Fox and Sabonis for his leadership. It was clear, even as a fan, that Javale took a massive role as a mentor to the younger guys on the team. While his playing days may be getting further back in the mirror, McGee is a fan favorite, and a large part of our locker room culture. 

Mike Brown: B-

Coach Brown was unquestionably the hardest person to rate. Mike is a fantastic head coach, one of the best in the league, and has instilled a winning culture in Sacramento that I am unbelievably grateful for. It’s clear that he has a high floor, and I believe the "fan" narrative of wanting him gone is ludicrous. He’s not perfect, though, and his overreliance on veterans hurt the team at times. It’s clear that he learned from Steve Kerr and displays that same level of commitment to his lineups and his “guys”. His refusal to change the lineup when Huerter and Barnes were struggling was puzzling, and while it’s impossible to look back and wonder if the season’s outcome would be different if Keon Ellis wasn’t getting DNP-CD’s while Huerter shot below 30%, it’s worth a mention. Brown is one of the top coaches in the league, and someone I could see leading Sacramento to a championship one day, he certainly deserves at least one or two more seasons here.

Mason Jones, Kessler Edwards, Jalen Slawson and Jordan Ford: Incomplete

There were small glimpses of promise from these four, but ultimately, none got enough reps in Sacramento to be graded correctly. Mason Jones was excellent in the G-League, and might be worth a look as a bench facilitator/shooter one day. Kessler Edwards is a lowercase 3&D guy. He shoots well from the corners, and can play spot minutes as a defender. As far as your 13th man goes, that’s pretty solid. If you squint hard enough, there are shades of Aaron Gordon in Jalen Slawson, but he’s clearly still raw and needs time to develop. Lastly, Jordan Ford showed promise as a ball-handler in the G, but needs more time in Stockton. If the developmental magician Lindsay Harding sticks around, you may see one of these guys on a roster near you soon.

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